Dylanz Net

Former Prime Minister Aso and the New Prime Minister Hatoyama

Big news. In charge of politics since 1955, the LDP lost its strangle hold on the Government of Japan in the August 30, 2009 elections after running the government into the ground.  The opposition party, the  DPJ, won a landslide victory and catapulted themselves to the role of leaders of the government.  

Why did this happen and what does it mean?

It became increasingly clear that the LDP operated with little reflection on the changing needs and desires of their supporters.  Despite the failings of the LDP, the DPJ did not attempt to provide leadership for this vacuum, but instead, under the leadership of Mr. Ozawa, consolidated their power and fought anything that the LDP proposed.  It was chaos in government.  At the political level, Japan failed to move forward smartly on anything. Prime Minister Aso could not extract himself from this quagmire.

The beginning of the end was likely the 50 million pension records that were “lost” in 2007.  When the scandal broke, the Prime Minister appeared on TV and failed to recognize the magnitude of the situation nor the perspective of the aging population that depend heavily on these pensions.  Rather than take charge and reassure the public that everything was being done to help….the prime minister crushed his supporters when he said the equivalent of “I hope you kept your receipts…”

It became clear the LDP lost touch with the population they claimed to support.  And that was the beginning of the slide.  PM Fukuda resigned to take responsibility for this fiasco and he was followed by Prime Minister Aso, another long-time LDP face who was known for his gaffes and inability to relate to the average person. 

And from this point forward, the DPJ seized on this opportunity and began to oppose anything that could be opposed.  The DPJ opposed refueling operatons in the Indian ocean, prevented the renewal of the gas tax, and host of other issues.   

A somewhat related event was the economic crisis of 2008-2009.  The livlihood of the average Japanese was at stake as companies began hiring more temps, and fewer full time employees. And then when the economic crisis hit, the temps were let go.  This en masse firing of employees added momentum to the snowball.  Then Obama’s election platform of change resonated with young and old  throughout Japan.  The voter turnout was a record 69% of registered voters turning out on Sunday and 13% of registered voters casting advance ballots.  The pressure is certainly on for the government to do something different.  But what?

So what now?  

It is unclear what Prime Minister Hatoyama of the DPJ will do in order to lead the government and implement the spirit of change.  The LDP is wounded but by no means are they out of the picture.  The elected officials are younger and the LDP is looking to regenerate their image.  This fight is not over.  But perhaps, this is the beginning of a balanced 2-party system in Japan.  And that is a good thing.

Although the bureaucracy that lies beneath the rough seas of politics in Japan is largely unaffected by election results–the real work done in the powerful Ministries (Finance, MLIT, etc.)  retain the same structure, same rules, and same direction.  These behemoths are not easily turned.  Despite changes in Ministers, these behemoths are rarely swayed by the rhetoric that frequently buffets the news reports on TV in Japan.

But then again, the mandate for change is resounding.  Leaders in both parties recognize that the same old backroom politics are no longer sufficient to keep the masses satisfied.  The people have spoken, and they want leaders who are responsive.  This could truly herald a new dawn in politics in Japan.  It will be business as usual until the next round of decision making generates support or derision from the population at large.  It is an exciting time to be following Japanese politics…at the same time, it is a glacial process.  I doubt we will see anything like the Meiji Restoration this time around.

Dylan

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