Ozawa smiles behind the scenes

When your political party is down and out, on the ropes, and little chance of surviving the next election…what do you do?
If you are in Japan, and your name is Ozawa, all you have to do is pull the reigns a little tighter to turn your ship around.

Translation:The previous Prime Minister of Japan recently stepped down…shortly after holding a meeting with his #2, the Chief Cabinet Secretary Ozawa. If you follow Japanese politics, you know that Ozawa is the king of politics with about 150 representatives who are directly beholden to his sway. He got them elected. He is also beyond the reach of the law…his aides have been indicted for illegal handling of funds…but the holder of the funds walked away scott free–no once, but twice. The Prime Minister himself was blasted for his monthly subsidies from his mom (a cool $1.5M per month that he claims he didn’t know he was receiving…recall that his mom is comes from the Bridgestone Family with coffers full of money).  Politics and money, the second oldest profession.

It was business as usual except that the Prime Minister and his cabinet were suffering abysmal support ratings that plummeted to around 17~19%. Many say it was for overall bumbling of everything, but mostly for bumbling the US-Japan relationship by insisting on doing things that were not possible…like moving Futenma operations out of Okinawa instead of the promised dissecting and relocation out of populated areas. In the end, the PM relented and said it was inevitable to keep the Futenma mission on Okinawa, but it would be moved as previously agreed.

So far so good. Support rate drops and the PM will either tough it out, call a snap election, or step down, right?  What would you do? Well PM Hatoyama chose to step down. But why now? Anything special about the timing? Sure, plenty special. This is on the eve of another election. With support rates in the dumps, the DPJ would be expected to lose lots of votes and seats. But by taking the top, resigning, and taking the tainted Ozawa with him, the party looks fresh and energetic again. But look closely….this is all window dressing. Both Hatoyama and Ozawa keep their diet seats. They just relinquish the roles of standing in front of the cameras. Let someone else handle the heat. And so they passed the torch to Kan in a nearly pre-ordained election. Kan was just figuring out his new post as Finance Minister when he got tapped for the top seat.  In a smart move, Kan kept most of the previous Cabinet members in his new Cabinet.  Nearly are almost all the same as the previous cabinet members, but now the support rate rockets up to near 70%.

Can you see Ozawa smiling. If he didn’t orchestrate this turn of events, I’m sure he at least thought about orchestrating it. Because now, his party stands a chance again of sweeping the election. The fickle public. Give them what they want when they are looking, take what you want when they are not.

But then again, I could be wrong. Only time will tell. Look ma, I’ve got an election coming up! Let’s see what comes of this.

It’s all about Change.  Or at least the appearance of change.  I guess now Japan can say “YES WE KAN”.   Good Luck Prime Minister Kan.  If anyone kan do it, you kan.

-Dylan

Former Prime Minister Aso and the New Prime Minister Hatoyama

Big news. In charge of politics since 1955, the LDP lost its strangle hold on the Government of Japan in the August 30, 2009 elections after running the government into the ground.  The opposition party, the  DPJ, won a landslide victory and catapulted themselves to the role of leaders of the government.  

Why did this happen and what does it mean?

It became increasingly clear that the LDP operated with little reflection on the changing needs and desires of their supporters.  Despite the failings of the LDP, the DPJ did not attempt to provide leadership for this vacuum, but instead, under the leadership of Mr. Ozawa, consolidated their power and fought anything that the LDP proposed.  It was chaos in government.  At the political level, Japan failed to move forward smartly on anything. Prime Minister Aso could not extract himself from this quagmire.

The beginning of the end was likely the 50 million pension records that were “lost” in 2007.  When the scandal broke, the Prime Minister appeared on TV and failed to recognize the magnitude of the situation nor the perspective of the aging population that depend heavily on these pensions.  Rather than take charge and reassure the public that everything was being done to help….the prime minister crushed his supporters when he said the equivalent of “I hope you kept your receipts…”

It became clear the LDP lost touch with the population they claimed to support.  And that was the beginning of the slide.  PM Fukuda resigned to take responsibility for this fiasco and he was followed by Prime Minister Aso, another long-time LDP face who was known for his gaffes and inability to relate to the average person. 

And from this point forward, the DPJ seized on this opportunity and began to oppose anything that could be opposed.  The DPJ opposed refueling operatons in the Indian ocean, prevented the renewal of the gas tax, and host of other issues.   

A somewhat related event was the economic crisis of 2008-2009.  The livlihood of the average Japanese was at stake as companies began hiring more temps, and fewer full time employees. And then when the economic crisis hit, the temps were let go.  This en masse firing of employees added momentum to the snowball.  Then Obama’s election platform of change resonated with young and old  throughout Japan.  The voter turnout was a record 69% of registered voters turning out on Sunday and 13% of registered voters casting advance ballots.  The pressure is certainly on for the government to do something different.  But what?

So what now?  

It is unclear what Prime Minister Hatoyama of the DPJ will do in order to lead the government and implement the spirit of change.  The LDP is wounded but by no means are they out of the picture.  The elected officials are younger and the LDP is looking to regenerate their image.  This fight is not over.  But perhaps, this is the beginning of a balanced 2-party system in Japan.  And that is a good thing.

Although the bureaucracy that lies beneath the rough seas of politics in Japan is largely unaffected by election results–the real work done in the powerful Ministries (Finance, MLIT, etc.)  retain the same structure, same rules, and same direction.  These behemoths are not easily turned.  Despite changes in Ministers, these behemoths are rarely swayed by the rhetoric that frequently buffets the news reports on TV in Japan.

But then again, the mandate for change is resounding.  Leaders in both parties recognize that the same old backroom politics are no longer sufficient to keep the masses satisfied.  The people have spoken, and they want leaders who are responsive.  This could truly herald a new dawn in politics in Japan.  It will be business as usual until the next round of decision making generates support or derision from the population at large.  It is an exciting time to be following Japanese politics…at the same time, it is a glacial process.  I doubt we will see anything like the Meiji Restoration this time around.

Dylan

But let us not forget that many give their lives so that we can continue to maintain our freedoms. For there is a cost to uphold what we believe is right, and that is the freedom we hold so dear.  As Fareed Zakaria states so clearly in his book “The Future of Freedom“, we don’t just want democracy, we want liberal democracy, “a political system marked not only by free and fair elections but also by the rule of law, a separation of powers, and the protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property.”

 So while we are enjoying our annual repaste, let us not forget the men and women who protect the freedoms we hold so dear. 

D

Air France Flight 447 Empenage Found Floating

If you run a google search on “Ground the Airbus? William Cox” you will find that hundreds of blogs are following this discussion. This is big news. On May 31, 2009, an Aribuse A330 operated as Air France Flight 447 flies into a storm and tragically 216 passengers and crew fly out, spread over 53 miles with the plane’s plastic tail is found intact floating in the ocean.

Go back in time just a bit to Nov 12, 2001 over Queens New York and you have and Airbus A300-650R operated as American Airlines Flight 587 where the vertical stabilizer was ripped from the airplane and was found relatively intact floating in Jamaica Bay. None of the 251 passengers or crew survived.

January 2002 a FedEx Airbus A300 freighter experiences uncommanded rudder inputs. In subsequent tests, the rudder actuator forced the rudder to tear a hole around its hinges. Hydraulic fluid caused the composite materials to delaminate. But the bottom line is the actuator damaged the airplane!

Mar 6, 2005, Air Transat Flight 961 was operating an Airbus A310-300 with 262 passengers. The crew felt strange vibrations and a bang, but managed to execute an safe emergency landing. They found the rudder had been torn from the airplane!

Nov 27, 2005, FedEX discovered extensive damage to the composites on their rudder apparently caused by hydraulic fluid. This discovery led to requirement for frequent and extensive testing on composite rudders of about 20 airplanes. This test barely scratches the surface of the the over 5,000 aircraft of similar design.

But wait, there’s more. Nov 18, 2008, an aircraft leased by XL Airways from Air New Zealand crashes during a test flight preparing it for return to Air New Zealand. This A320 disintegrated at low altitude with its plastic tail floating at the crash site. Was this tail also ripped off? It is unkown and may never be known.

The Boeing 777 also has a composite tail. But the stresses are not concentrated at one attachment point as in the Air Bus Design. The composites are tied into the aluminum structure of the aircraft spreading the load.

So the question I am posing here is not whether composite tails are safe or not. The question is whether an aircraft design that can cause the aircraft to damage itself can continue to generate revenue with impunity. Shouldn’t there be greater scrutiny? Who can provide this? Do we the public demand to fly non Airbus aircraft? Can our governments band together to lcoate the cause and deficiency of the aircraft? Are the governments associated with Airbus to be implicated in a coverup? What conspiracy theories can we generate? But more importantly, when lives are on the line, shouldn’t we ask for more from our governments?

D
Source: American Chronicle

The U.S. Secretary of Defense is taking his leadership challenge seriously. He just asked for the resignation of the Secretary of the Air Force and the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Ralph Peters posted an opinion published in the New York Post titled “Gates the Great“that highlights some of the concerns that may have ultimately forced the two highest Air Force leaders to quit.

There are dozens more stories of leaders and their talent for taking on the difficult missions, seeing them through, and then letting others reap the benefits of their decisions.  The leaders we look up to make us feel better even if we didn’t really want to change our ways.  We see that things really are better now.

When we give leaders a chance, they can help bring us all to a better place.